Global Energy Review
United Arab Emirates
Crude-oil output has been fairly stable over the last decade. Production is overwhelmingly concentrated in Abu Dhabi. The only other production of any real significance is in Dubai, where it is in terminal decline. Dubai's output in 2003 was about 150,000 bpd. The UAE produces approximately 0.2 mn bpd of NGL.
Official figures for proven reserves appear to be somewhat overstated at nearly 98 bn bbl. During the 1980s, the UAE used its high reserve figures to press for higher OPEC quotas at a time when rising output from Dubai was forcing Abu Dhabi to cut back on its own production. There has been very little exploration in the UAE since the 1980s. A figure in the region of 50 bn bbl seems a more reasonable estimate of the UAE's current proven reserves.
A further reason for doubting the official figures is that there have been few significant discoveries in the last ten years or more, and those that have been made have been fairly small in size. Indeed, there seem very few underground structures in the UAE that are likely to hold large, undiscovered fields.
The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) appears to recognize that the UAE's oil resources are not as extensive as once thought in its somewhat conservative plans for capacity additions over the next few years. ADNOC's forecasts of capacity for 2006 show a rise of only 0.5 mn bpd compared with 2002. This appears to be a downward revision of nearly 0.5 mn bpd on earlier forecasts. Furthermore, there are reports that the 0.6 mn bpd Upper Zakum field is not as prolific as once thought.
Production Outlook
The whole of any increase between now and 2010 is set to come from Abu Dhabi, while output in Dubai and Sharjah declines. Dubai could well be below 0.1 mn bpd by the end of decade. There may be a small increase in NGL production.
Crude oil production is forecast as follows:
| 2003 | 2.3 mn bpd |
| 2010 | 2.8 mn bpd |
UAE, Reserves & Production, 2003
| Reserves: | 97.8 bn bbl |
| Reserves remaining: | 119.1 years |
| Production capacity: | 2.45 mn bpd |
| OPEC Quota (Nov '03): | 2.14 mn bpd |
| Production: | 2.25 mn bpd |
| Consumption: | 0.25 mn bpd |
| Net trade: | 2.00 mn bpd |
| Peak output | * |
| Peak year | * |
Production 1991-2003
OET Archive
External links
- UAE Government - Oil and Gas [ http://www.uae.gov.ae/Government/oil_gas.htm ]
- ADNOC [ http://www.adnoc.com/ ]
- ADGAS [ http://www.adgas.com/ ]
- Pipeline Dubai [ http://www.pipelinedubai.com/ ]
