Global Energy Review
Indonesia
In 2003, Indonesia became a net importer of oil. While this ought to invalidate its membership of OPEC, neither Indonesia nor the other 10 members show much sign of wanting to dissolve the tie. Indonesia nevertheless has the smallest reserves and the second-lowest production capacity in OPEC. Its output capacity is about 0.2 mn bpd below its official OPEC quota. Production is in long-term decline.
Indonesia's proven oil reserves have been reported around 5 bn bbl since 1996. Given the political and economic upheavals since then and their effect on exploration and foreign investment, together with the tendency of companies to find gas rather than oil, it may be that the 2003 figure of 5 bn bbl is somewhat overstated. Indonesia's oil output is augmented by a small amount of NGL production, but this has fallen sharply in recent years and is now below 0.2 mn bpd.
Political instability, combined with unattractive fiscal terms have discouraged exploration in recent years. An added complication for foreign investors is the demand by many regional governments in Indonesia for higher oil revenues for themselves. Large international oil companies have shown little interest in recent acreage offerings (other than for natural gas) and much of the foreign upstream investment is provided by Asian state oil firms, like Petronas, PetroVietnam, PetroChina, and CNOOC, or small independents such as Medco, Seleraya, Petroland, Exindo, and Pearl. The state oil company, Pertamina, retains an important role, but its supervisory role is diminishing and the company's future role is uncertain, as the government debates how by much it should be restructured and whether or not to privatize at least parts of the reorganized entity.
Most oil production is onshore and includes the two largest fields, Minas and Duri in Sumatra. Both fields are mature. The natural decline of the older, larger fields is not being offset by new discoveries; nor does the outlook appear particularly bright for new oil production. New discoveries are generally coming in at levels of well below 500 mn bbl for recoverable reserves. The situation is exacerbated in some cases by the failure of the government to agree a development timetable with the fields' operators. The offshore and deep-offshore sectors are described as 'promising', but field sizes here appear to be around the 250mn-bbl mark with production capacities of 60,000 bpd or less. In these circumstances, it appears unlikely that Indonesian reserves have remained constant at 5 bn bbl for the last seven years, as reported in most reserve assessments. If anything, they are likely to have declined steadily.
Production Outlook
As new upstream investment concentrates increasingly on gas, Indonesia's oil output looks set to continue its long-term decline, though some new production towards the end of the decade may help briefly to stabilize output then. There could also be a slight rise in NGL production as well.
Crude-oil production is forecast as follows:
| 2003 | 1.0 mn bpd |
| 2010 | 0.8 mn bpd |
Indonesia, Reserves & Production, 2003
| Reserves: | 5.0 bn bbl |
| Reserves remaining: | 13.7 years |
| Production capacity: | 1.05 mn bpd |
| OPEC Quota (Nov '03): | 1.27 mn bpd |
| Production: | 1.00 mn bpd |
| Consumption: | 1.20 mn bpd |
| Net trade: | (0.20 mn bpd) |
| Peak output | 1.47 mn bpd |
| Peak year | 1991 |
Production 1991-2003
OET Archive
External links
- Pertamina [ http://www.pertamina.com/ ]
- Petromindo [ http://www.petromindo.com/ ]
- US Embassy - Indonesia [ http://www.usembassyjakarta.org/ ]
