Global Energy Review
Forecasts
Production Outlook, 2003-10
Six of OPEC's 11 members are probably in long term decline. They are:
Five have almost certainly not reached their all-time peak. These are:
The production outlook for each country is considered separately in the preceding pages. Crude-oil production capacity for the whole of OPEC is forecast as follows:
| 2003 | 26.9 mn bpd |
| 2010 | 33.8 mn bpd |
Further liquids' production is available from NGLs and, in the case of Venezuela, synthetic and heavy crude. OPEC's total production capacity of liquids is forecast below. How much is actually produced will depend on quota levels and their observance (or otherwise) by each member country.
| 2003 | 30.4 mn bpd |
| 2010 | 38.8 mn bpd |
OPEC: Crude Oil Output, 2003-10
The following is our forecast by country of OPEC's production of crude oil:
| Country | Output (mn bpd) | ||
| 2003* | 2010† | Change | |
| Saudi Arabia | 8.8 | 10.6 | 1.8 |
| Iran | 3.8 | 4.0 | 0.2 |
| Venezuela | 2.3 | 1.9 | (0.4) |
| UAE | 2.3 | 2.8 | 0.5 |
| Kuwait | 2.2 | 2.8 | 0.6 |
| Nigeria | 2.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 |
| Libya | 1.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| Iraq | 1.3 | 3.5 | 2.2 |
| Algeria | 1.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| Indonesia | 1.0 | 0.8 | (0.2) |
| Qatar | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| Total | 26.9 | 33.8 | 6.9 |
| * Forecast production | |||
| † Forecast capacity | |||
| NB: Totals rounded | |||
OPEC: NGL1 Output, 2003-10
The following table is our forecast by country of OPEC's NGL production. Member countries are likely to produce at or near their full capacity for NGL and other non-quota hydrocarbons.
| Country | Output (mn bpd) | ||
| 2003 | 2010 | Change | |
| Algeria | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| Saudi Arabia | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Venezuela | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| Iran | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Nigeria | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| UAE | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Indonesia | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Libya | 0.1 | 0.1 | unch |
| Qatar | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Others | * | 0.1 | * |
| Total | 3.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 |
| *<0.1 mn bpd | |||
| NB: Totals rounded | |||
OPEC: Total Output of Hydrocarbon Liquids, 2003-10
The following table is our forecast by country of OPEC's production of crude oil and NGLs.
| Country | Output (mn bpd) | ||
| 2003* | 2010† | Change | |
| Saudi Arabia | 9.6 | 11.8 | 2.2 |
| Iran | 4.0 | 4.4 | 0.4 |
| Venezuela | 3.0 | 3.0 | unch |
| UAE | 2.5 | 3.1 | 0.6 |
| Kuwait | 2.2 | 2.8 | 0.6 |
| Nigeria | 2.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 |
| Libya | 1.5 | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| Iraq | 1.3 | 3.6 | 2.3 |
| Algeria | 1.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| Indonesia | 1.1 | 1.0 | (0.1) |
| Qatar | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Total | 30.4 | 38.8 | 8.4 |
| * Forecast production | |||
| † Forecast capacity | |||
| NB: Totals rounded | |||
Notes:
1 Non-quota NGL only. Excludes some NGL spiked into crude streams. In the case of Venezuela, also includes production of heavy oil and Orimulsion, which are also non-quota.
